Don't have an account? Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!
Already have an account? Log In
Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
One of fantasy baseball’s premier power threats over the last few seasons, Hernandez mashed 32 home runs in 595 plate appearances in 2021 after connecting on 16 in 207 plate appearances during the 2020 campaign.
His power numbers, at least on the surface, aren’t up to the same standard. The 29-year-old has just three home runs in 155 plate appearances so far during the 2022 campaign. His ISO is also down considerably as a result.
Teoscar Hernandez ISO By Season:
There’s also a career-worst 51.9% ground ball rate (Hernandez previously finished with a ground ball rate between 38% and 40% in each of the last four seasons) which is no doubt impacting his power production, especially when he’s still making some of the same quality contact that made him such an excellent power threat in years past. The outfielder's hard-hit rate (47.6%) and barrel rate (11.5%) are right in line with his hard-hit rate (49%) and barrel rate (13.9%) from last season. That those numbers haven’t been impacted too much by the new baseball is encouraging, and also a reason why now is the ideal time to make a trade for the slugger now because the window for making a deal might be closing.
In addition to a bevy of promising expected metrics, Hernandez is batting .364 with a .407 on-base percentage, a home run, and a stolen base in 59 plate appearances since May 31. Over that span, he’s logged eight barrels, a 52.4% hard-hit rate, and (perhaps most crucially) a 38.1% ground-ball rate. If you have the pitching depth, trading someone like Charlie Morton for Hernandez in a one-for-one deal makes plenty of sense. I’d also try packaging a useful, but not crucial, rotation option with a bench outfielder for Hernandez.
Marcus Semien’s slow start might be fading into the background. The infielder, who is batting .226 with a .288 on-base percentage, six home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 264 plate appearances this season, is on a tear as of late. Since June 4, the veteran is batting .405 with a .468 on-base percentage, four home runs, and four stolen bases in just 47 plate appearances. His hard-hit rate during that span (36.1%) and overall hard-hit rate (29.9%) still aren’t ideal, but he’s making plenty of contact this season, which partly helps make up for it. Semien’s strikeout rate is currently 16.4%. If the season ended today, that would be the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career.
Still, the recent power surge is extremely promising, especially considering Semien – who hit 45 home runs in 2021 – had just two homers through his first 221 plate appearances. Even if the former Blue Jay doesn’t repeat with another gaudy home run total, his power and speed ability make him one of fantasy baseball’s best middle infielders, especially considering he’s actually running more than he did last year.
Entering the 2022 season, Semien had reached double digits in stolen bases in each of the last six full seasons. However, his career-best is just 15 steals, which happened during the 2021 campaign. That he already has 11 so far in his first year in Texas is incredibly promising. Pair that with the home run power coming back and Semien might be the most intriguing trade target in fantasy baseball at the moment. I’d look to package a reasonably productive middle infielder like Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres, or Kyle Farmer with a quality rotation option in a trade for Semien.
Mullins’ power numbers are down slightly, but that’s hardly a new development for players across the league. The league average for ISO is down from .167 in 2021 to .150 this season. Still, the Orioles outfielder is hitting for enough power. With his ability to steal bases, he can be an impact fantasy baseball player.
Through 62 games and 275 plate appearances, Mullins is batting .244 with a .304 on-base percentage, six home runs, and 12 stolen bases. That’s obviously not as productive as his breakout 2021 campaign when he hit .291 with a .360 on-base percentage, 30 home runs, and 30 stolen bases in 675 plate appearances, but some key underlying stats show that the outfielder is doing much of what made him successful in 2021, but just isn't seeing the results.
The 27-year-old has seen his chase rate climb from 27.8% last year to 32.9% this year, but otherwise, it’s a similar story from an underlying stat standpoint – to the point where a hot streak or simply more production seems inevitable. That may already be happening, to a degree. Mullins is batting .277 since the calendar flipped to June and is batting .300 with a .344 on-base percentage, a home run, and a stolen base in his last 33 plate appearances.
Morton has had an uneven season so far, pitching to a 5.67 ERA and a 4.58 FIP in 60.1 innings. He’s struck out 9.85 batters per nine innings, which is right in line with his numbers dating back to the beginning of his time in Houston.
However, he’s also walking 3.88 batters per nine innings, his highest metric in the category since 2018, and is surrendering 1.34 home runs per nine frames. Morton has been adept at limiting the long ball for most of his career, but if the season ended today, his 2022 home runs per nine innings rate would be the highest it has been since 2010 when the 38-year-old had a 7.57 ERA and a 5.29 FIP in 79.2 innings for the Pirates.
So why is Morton in the “Overvalued” portion of this article? Largely because he’s been missing a ton of bats lately. Like 20 in his last 11 innings to be specific. Those 20 strikeouts included a staggering 12 in his last start against those Pirates. What’s more, Morton had a 40% CSW rate during that game and logged 23 whiffs on the 46 pitches Pittsburgh swung at. If someone in your league thinks this is the start of a resurgence, or rather a return to form for the veteran, now is the time to move the veteran. The start against the Pirates was plenty promising, but Morton has given up four earned runs or more in seven of his 12 starts this season. It is also worth noting that his former team does have the second-highest strikeout rate in the league.
Morton certainly isn’t someone to cut just yet, but if you can deal him as part of a deal for a bounce-back candidate with significant upside – like Hernandez or Raisel Iglesias– it may pay significant dividends for you later in the season.
McKenzie has a 3.09 ERA in 64 innings this season. That’s obviously good. On the surface, it might prompt someone in your league to make a deal for the 24-year-old, who impressed mightily during the 2020 campaign with a 3.24 ERA, a 3.91 FIP, and 55 strikeouts in 33.1 innings. What’s not so good is that McKenzie has a 4.07 xERA and a 4.64 FIP this season. While his walks per nine innings (2.53) and home runs allowed per nine innings (1.55) are much more in line with his 2020 metrics (2.43 and 1.62 respectively), the strikeouts just aren’t.
The right-hander struck out 11.34 batters per nine frames in 2020. This season, it’s down to 7.73 strikeouts per nine innings. That number is also down below the league average for starters in each of the last four campaigns.
K/9 League Average For Starting Pitchers By Season:
Pair that with decreased whiff rates on both the right-hander's two primary bat-missing options, his slider and curveball, and you have a somewhat unideal situation. What’s more, the 24-year-old is also in the 16th percentile league-wide in barrel rate and the 29th percentile in hard-hit rate. That’s even less ideal considering he’s giving up more contact.
Triston McKenzie Slider and Curveball Whiff Rates By Season
McKenzie’s ERA probably isn’t sustainable at this rate and definitely seems like it’ll regress at some point, perhaps soon considering he’s also sporting a .176 BABIP. However, the right-hander has logged at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. Try trading McKenzie for a similarly productive position player like Jeremy Pena or a fellow starting pitcher with quality underlying peripherals.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
More Fantasy Baseball Advice Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 15 Which Ian Anderson Will We Get In The Second Half? Starts & Sits for MLB Week 15 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (7/22/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups MLB Closers and Saves Report - Trade Deadline Candidates and Bullpen Changes Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/22/22) Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for July 22: Pitcher Props, Money Line, Run Line Bets PrizePicks MLB DFS Prop Picks for Fantasy Baseball - Friday July 22nd Daily MLB Injury Roundup for July 22nd, 2022 Updated MLB Prospects Rankings - Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Prospects (Week 15)
Baseball is back, folks! As entertaining as the All-Star festivities were, it's nice to get back to organized baseball games, particularly with postseason races picking up. We truly are in the midst of the best time of the year. Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues... Read More
It is just past the halfway point in the season, the All-Star Break, and Atlanta starting pitcher Ian Anderson has been a disappointment for fantasy baseball managers this season with a 4.79 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts in 92 innings pitched. The only real plus is despite how he has pitched, he has an... Read More
We are back from the All-Star break, continuing the starting pitcher starts and sits series! It's sure to be a wild second half. We've had some trouble finding cheap pitching options lately, and we've seen a lot of the fringe guys get drilled on the mound. We hope this chart helps you navigate the tough... Read More
It's the first BIG slate of baseball all week, and I am sure you are anxious to get back to building MLB DFS lineups. It feels a little bit like an Opening Day slate with a lot of teams being able to reset their pitching rotations, giving us a bunch of aces on the bump.... Read More
Do you like pitching? Do you like calls to the bullpen? Do you like seeing a neat and tidy box score where every pitcher on a team throws exactly one inning? Then you probably loved the All-Star Game this week! It was a fun weekend filled with superstars and the replacements for superstars and the... Read More
RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for July 22nd, 2022. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More
We are coming out of the All-Star break with our attention to the second half of the MLB season. This is another installment of our fantasy baseball prospects rankings series, reviewing MLB prospects to make fantasy impacts in 2022. Max Meyer was called up, and Esteury Ruiz was called up as well and is not... Read More
Welcome back RotoBallers from the All-Star break, and to another edition of my "Breakout Hitters To Watch" series. What we're doing here is taking a good, close look at the hitting data each week to see which hitters are standing out the most. I want to do something different for this edition, we're going to... Read More
For pitchers, K% minus BB% is generally recognized to be a superior metric to K/BB, and one of the better metrics out there for capturing pitcher talent. For batters, though, BB/K is still the dominant metric, widely referenced in baseball research. BB% minus K%, while not new, is only referenced in a few sabermetric niche... Read More
In 2021, Tyler O'Neill had a very solid first half of the season, batting .275 with 15 home runs, seven steals, 37 RBI, and 38 runs scored. Most fantasy baseball players that have him remember his September/October where he hit .328 with 13 home runs, five steals, 30 RBI, and 31 runs scored in those... Read More
I hope you all are having a fantastic All-Star break. I made it about a day and a half before I had the itch to get back here and write more fantasy baseball stuff. Plenty of people are transitioning to fantasy football this week, but the fantasy baseball season is just about to get really... Read More
Welcome back RotoBallers from the All-Star break! We're back at it for some fantasy baseball trade targets and avoids for Week 15 of the MLB season. Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant... Read More
It's the end of the All-Star Break as we know it (and I feel fine). Well, it's only the end for six teams. The other 24 still have an extra day to relax while these six have to get back out there a day early and make up some games. Hey, we're not complaining! It... Read More
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.... Read More
At this point in the offseason, all teams have had their minicamps and many teams are gearing up to begin their training camps ahead of the 2022 NFL season. Every season, early fantasy sleepers are created and destroyed throughout the process of the NFL draft. Now that we have had a couple of months to... Read More
Each year, we see a handful of incoming rookie WRs finish as a WR2 or better in fantasy football. While the best rookies are typically those who are drafted in the first round (Odell Beckham Jr., Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase), there are also numerous recent examples of Day 2 and 3 picks who also had... Read More
I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to... Read More
What's a "sleeper?" Well, it's really quite simple. A sleeper is a player that you expect to outproduce their average draft position (ADP) or produce better than players with a similar ADP. It could be that you have Travis Etienne ranked as RB10 and his ADP is RB24. He'd be considered a sleeper because you're... Read More
Rookie wide receivers have started to dominate the fantasy football landscape over recent years. A.J. Brown was the WR15 overall in 2019. We saw Justin Jefferson finish as the WR6 overall in 2020, with fellow rookies CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool finishing inside the top-20. The trend continued in 2021, with Ja'Marr Chase finishing as... Read More
Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) is joined by DLFootball's Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) to discuss SFB12 and sleepers after pick 100 in fantasy football. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel SiriusXM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays from 3-5 PM, and Sundays from 3-5 PM. You can also find new weekly... Read More
Some of you have been building rosters in the best-ball format since the initial weeks of the offseason, and participation in this popular format has intensified as we continue our progression toward Week 1. Enthusiasm for these leagues remains enormous for multiple reasons, which includes the ability to complete all forms of roster management immediately upon the conclusion... Read More
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.... Read More
This offseason has featured a ton of wide receivers getting paid big money, which all started when the Jacksonville Jaguars signed free agent Christian Kirk. This seemingly set a new bar in the market that happened to coincide with some of the biggest names in the NFL negotiating a new deal, including Davante Adams, Tyreek... Read More
Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Cincinnati Bengals. The defending AFC champions are returning most of their 2021 offense, and their starters at skill positions are locked in. Their passing targets... Read More
Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller identifies fantasy football running back draft sleepers, values, targets, and avoids for your 2022 fantasy football drafts. He breaks down and compares the ADPs of several running backs (RBs) to help prepare you for your fantasy football drafts. Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM... Read More
It was quite the fantasy football season in 2021 for wide receiver breakouts. Fantasy managers were treated to breakout seasons from players like Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman Jr., Jaylen Waddle, and Marquise Brown, among many others. It's a position that routinely provides fantasy managers with plenty of sleeper and breakout candidates. If you... Read More